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Full reports first, then the market, the sectors, the names and the writing — top-down, in one place.

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Deep-dive equity research.

Twenty to thirty pages each: thesis, financial model, valuation, scenarios, and the risks that would break it. Published monthly.

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Overviews are free to read. The complete reports — models, scenarios, valuation work — come with a Standard or Full membership.

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Type any ticker into the chart. Headlines update through the session; the calendar shows medium and high-impact releases only.

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Sector view Members only

Where the cycle is.

Sector-level positioning — stance, cycle stage, what is genuinely driving the move, and the one risk that would break each case.

Sector Stance Cycle Fwd P/E Growth What is driving it Key risk
Healthcare — pharma & biotech Undervalued Early Below own history Re-accelerating into 2027 Two years of underperformance have left the group below its own historical multiples just as earnings growth turns back up. New launches are scaling faster than patent cliffs erode. Drug-pricing policy and GLP-1 price erosion. One policy headline can reset the whole group in a day.
Financials — banks, custody & brokers Undervalued Mid ~15x ~+15% EPS Mid-teens earnings growth at roughly 15x forward, against about 20x for the S&P 500. Rates held higher for longer support net interest income; busier capital markets lift fees. A credit scare in private lending, or a flattening front end of the curve squeezing margins.
Semiconductors & AI hardware Constructive Mid Leaders ~24x Capex ~$0.8tn → $1.3tn Hyperscaler capital spending on course to rise from roughly $0.8tn toward $1.3tn, with leading suppliers capacity-constrained into 2028. Leaders still trade near 24x forward. The group is up close to 100% this year. A 10-year yield at 5% compresses long-duration multiples first.
Electrical equipment & grid Constructive Mid Premium Backlog-led Multi-year contracted backlog from data-centre and grid build-out. Order visibility runs years, not quarters. Industrials were the weakest group early in Q3, and premium multiples leave no room for a backlog wobble.
European defence Constructive Mid ~28x avg Budgets → ~€800bn by 2030 European defence spending legislated toward roughly €800bn a year by 2030. No dependence on the AI capex cycle — the diversifier in the book. A credible ceasefire re-rates the group lower quickly; at around 28x, delivery is already priced.
Energy — upstream & services Late cycle Late Peak-cycle earnings Price-driven Brent above $100 with Middle East output not expected back to pre-war levels until 2027. The best-performing sector this year, up close to 50%. A phased US–Iran agreement reopening Hormuz flows would take the risk premium out fast.
Utilities Neutral Mid ~14x (3y fwd) Load-growth driven Data-centre load growth converts into regulated rate base — the most visible earnings stream in the market. A 5% risk-free rate competes directly with the dividend. The group has slipped about 6% since late August.
REITs & net lease Neutral Contracting Cap rates resetting Flat Net-lease names now yield around 8% on inflation-linked leases. The first group to re-rate once the Fed stops. No base yet. Rates, not fundamentals, set the price until they turn.
Consumer discretionary & online intermediaries Late cycle Late Mixed Weakest sector YTD Fuel costs and mortgage rates above 7% squeeze the consumer; agentic-AI shopping threatens intermediaries without a loyalty moat. The upside risk: a Hormuz deal plus a Fed pause could force a sharp squeeze in the most-disliked group.

8 more sectors

Where each sector sits in its cycle, what is actually driving the move, and the risk that would break the case.

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Factor grades across coverage.

Every name scored on five factors and a conviction rating. Grades are our own scoring, not a vendor feed — which means each one has reasoning attached rather than a black-box number.

Ticker Company Sector Value Growth Profit Moment. Revis. Conviction
APEI American Public Education 31% below its May high while guidance was raised. Net cash, ROIC 21%. The risk is policy, not the business. Education services B+ A- A- D A 7.5/10
BNY BNY A fast, clean pullback from this month's high. Higher-for-longer supports net interest revenue. Custody & banking B B A- B+ B+ 7.5/10
APH Amphenol Tightest volatility contraction in coverage. The AI build-out's picks and shovels — buy the pivot, not the chase. Interconnect D+ A A A A- 7.5/10
NVDA NVIDIA Near the high, supply constrained through FY2028, roughly 24x forward. Priced below its own growth. Semiconductors B- A+ A+ A- A 7.5/10
KNSA Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Lead product +55%, guidance raised twice, Phase 3 follow-on. Single-product risk sets the size. Biotechnology C A+ B A- A 7/10
MRX Marex Group Six record quarters in a row, ROE 37.5%. Energy-desk volatility and insider selling are the watch items. Brokerage & clearing B A A A- A- 7/10
PRDO Perdoceo Education Net cash near a third of market cap, ROIC 38%, EV/EBIT 6.3. Buying back about 4% of shares a year. Education services A C+ A+ C B 7/10
NESR National Energy Services Reunited Revenue +59% with a $2bn floor and positive free cash flow. Gulf exposure cuts both ways — half size. Oilfield services B A+ B+ B+ A 6.5/10
SENEA Seneca Foods About 12x normalised earnings and 0.7x sales. The defensive value leg of the book. Packaged food A- B B B B 6.5/10
NVO Novo Nordisk 74% off the high at roughly 9x earnings. Volume has to outrun price; a third guidance cut breaks it. Pharmaceuticals A D A F D- 6.5/10
VICI VICI Properties Five-year low, around 7.9% yield on CPI-linked leases. A rate trade — wait for the base. Net-lease REIT A B- A- F C 6.5/10

10 more names, fully graded

Valuation, growth, profitability, momentum and estimate revisions across the whole coverage universe — with the reasoning behind every grade.

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Grades Astrong Bgood Cneutral Dweak Fpoor
Coverage

Companies on the desk.

The active coverage list — finite by design. Names are added on evidence, not on news flow.

Ticker Company Sector Stance Updated
APEI American Public Education Education services Constructive Sep 2026
BNY BNY Custody & banking Constructive Sep 2026
APH Amphenol Interconnect Constructive Sep 2026
NVDA NVIDIA Semiconductors Constructive Sep 2026
KNSA Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology Constructive Sep 2026
MRX Marex Group Brokerage & clearing Constructive Sep 2026
PRDO Perdoceo Education Education services Constructive Sep 2026
NESR National Energy Services Reunited Oilfield services Constructive Sep 2026
SENEA Seneca Foods Packaged food Constructive Sep 2026
NVO Novo Nordisk Pharmaceuticals Constructive Sep 2026
VICI VICI Properties Net-lease REIT Neutral Sep 2026

Stances reflect research opinion, not personalised investment advice.

Watchlist

Under active coverage.

The desk plus the names one trigger away, each with its working thesis. Free to read in full.

Ticker
Company
Sector
Stance
Working thesis
Status
APEI
American Public Education
Education services
Constructive
31% below its May high while guidance was raised, with EPS guided up 93%. Net cash, ROIC of 21% and an F-Score of 8. What breaks it: changes to Title IV or military tuition assistance.
Active
BNY
BNY
Custody & banking
Constructive
Pulled back roughly 10% from a high set this month — a fast, clean retracement, not a trend break. Higher-for-longer rates support net interest revenue on top of fee growth.
Active
APH
Amphenol
Interconnect
Constructive
Tightest volatility contraction in coverage: 7% off the high, 41% above the low. Picks-and-shovels exposure to the AI build-out. The entry is the pivot, not the chase.
Active
NVDA
NVIDIA
Semiconductors
Constructive
5% below the high, supply constrained through FY2028, at roughly 24x forward earnings. The leader of the build-out priced below its own growth rate.
Active
KNSA
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals
Biotechnology
Constructive
ARCALYST revenue up 55%, guidance raised twice to $980–995m, KPL-387 in Phase 3. Single-product concentration is the risk to size around.
Active
MRX
Marex Group
Brokerage & clearing
Constructive
Six consecutive record quarters — Q2 revenue +39%, adjusted pre-tax profit +56%, ROE 37.5%. Watch items: energy-desk volatility and insider selling.
Active
PRDO
Perdoceo Education
Education services
Constructive
Net cash near a third of market cap, ROIC 38%, EV/EBIT 6.3 and a share count shrinking about 4% a year. The discount is regulatory, not operational.
Active
NESR
National Energy Services Reunited
Oilfield services
Constructive
Q2 revenue up 59%, around $100m of free cash flow, net debt near $100m and a $2bn revenue floor. Gulf disruption and insider selling argue for half size.
Active
SENEA
Seneca Foods
Packaged food
Constructive
About 12x normalised earnings and 0.7x sales, with the Green Giant US frozen business now added. The defensive value leg, with an asset-backed floor.
Active
NVO
Novo Nordisk
Pharmaceuticals
Constructive
74% below the high at roughly 9x earnings — the price already assumes a 2026 decline. Needs GLP-1 volume to outrun price cuts; a third guidance cut breaks it.
Active
VICI
VICI Properties
Net-lease REIT
Neutral
Five-year low, around 7.9% yield on CPI-linked triple-net leases, AFFO guidance raised. A rate trade — wait for a base before sizing.
Monitoring
ANET
Arista Networks
Networking
Neutral
Share gainer in AI data-centre networking. Trigger: a breakout above the prior high on volume — not a chase inside the range.
Monitoring
LLY
Eli Lilly
Pharmaceuticals
Neutral
Business quality intact; no adds near the high. Alongside NVO it would double GLP-1 exposure, so sizing is the discipline here.
Monitoring
AIZ
Assurant
Specialty insurance
Neutral
13% off the August high. The size of the pullback fits a mean-reversion entry; the speed of it does not yet.
Monitoring
YELP
Yelp
Online intermediaries
Cautious
Around 31% free-cash-flow yield and 9–11% of shares retired a year, but directly in the path of agentic-AI shopping. Needs four to six weeks of stabilisation first.
Monitoring
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